For some time I’ve been thinking about the value of life on the Rock. Yeah.. yeah.. ah know, its about quality time not the length of time, Rock-huggers will inform me. So for Rock-huggers who respond like that, a short amount of time on terra firma is not an issue – as per the ‘rum till a dead’ mentality. Whaddayah expect.
Well let’s get a bit more serious – shall we. Let me invite you to consider the risk of getting killed intentionally by another human being. Let’s call that homicide for the moment – but it could include murder as a separate legal concept. The question is particularly relevant in relation to Odai Ramischand’s tragic loss of his 18 year old daughter on the premises of their high-security home. It had me In Tears, as some may recall.
Let’s do some math. If the average homicide rate over the last 6 complete years on the Rock can be taken as about 500 per 1.3 million of population, that translates to 385 per million. (average annual rates taken from www.freedomchambers.com). The lowest estimate I could make was 450 per year. Mind you, homicide rates are difficult to track accurately on the Rock, because there is reliable insider information that the figures have been massaged or fiddled down. But let’s not get bogged down with politricks. If I divide numerator and denominator by 385 I get get a rate of 1 in 2600!!! But see country figures here at Wikipedia, which would give the Rock homicide rate at a lower figure of 1 in 2700 (averaged over last 5 years). These rates are a measure of risk, though probably not as good as actuarial estimates.
For the USA the statistical risk of getting dead by homicide is about 1 : 15,440 (data from the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis). The USA has a homicide rate of 4.8 in 100,000 which translates to a broad risk of about 1 : 21,000. Actuarial risk and my rough calculations will differ. As you can see they are not too far apart.
The latest UK rates for intentional homicides (which excludes small numbers of assisted suicides, and infanticide) is 1.23 per 100,000 which translates to 1 in 81,000. That means that I’m roughly 30 times less likely to be ‘murdered’ for living in the UK!! [As a gift to Rock-huggers I'm willing to whimsically and arbitrarily - as they do culturally - reduce the multiplier down to 20 from 30. Heh heh.. one has to be so afraid of the Russians these days eh. ]
What all the above means is that, if you live on the Rock your risk of homicide is about:
- 700% greater than living in the USA.
- 3000% greater than living in the UK.
Your first response is likely to be one of shock and disbelief. You’re expected to say that The Captain has finally flipped out! But as you know I will take no hard feelings. The figures appear staggering and unbelievable. That’s the thing called ‘cognitive dissonance’ – which may lead you to do a number of things. Firstly you can reject the figures outright leaving you to remain calm, or secondly you can become more curious to see if The Cap is up to ‘his old tricks’ and has purposefully misled you. So you would be expected to think – especially if you’re from the Rock!
Now for death by ‘crash dummy’[DBCD] – aka death associated with road traffic accidents. On the Rock your risk of DBCD is estimated to be of the order of 1 in 6500 (15.5 per 100,000). In the UK the same category of risk would be 1 in 28,000 (3.59 per 100,000) and in the USA 1 in 8000 (12.3 per 100,000) [See: Traffic related death rate].
What this means is that if you live on the Rock, your risk of ‘death by crash dummy’ is:
- 123% that of the USA
- 4300% that of the UK
Well, leaving aside minor inaccuracies you will come to find that the percentage risks to your life for living on the Rock are roughly within The Cap’s estimates. But that will not please you. Tough – if they don’t take you by homicide, they will take you by ‘crash dummy’. It is your destiny! Have you built that raft as yet?
Right - do I give a flying f* about whether I please you? Those who know The Cap, will expect that reality is the only thing that matters – and The Cap will say “sod you and your feelings”! Because your feelings are now severely bruised you will find fault or disregard the above. You will be expected to entrench your position instead of being swayed by logic. You knew already that ‘The Rock’ is the best place in the world to live, regardless of any statistics. And here’s the news – welcome to your Rock! Do I give a flying f* about whether I am right or wrong. The facts exist independently of me – even if I report them. They exist irrespective of your feelings. Remember me when you’re in your last moments, if you’re lucky to be conscious – should you be unfortunate enough to have your life terminated because of your own stupidity.